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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Cal St. Bakersfield

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:220.0
Current RPI:220
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:115
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:5-10
Expected Conf Record:5-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-5
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:156
Expected OOC SOS:47



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-18220.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Bakersfield.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Georgia Southern (140.0)SBA77-53L0%0.0
11-16Arizona (13.0)P12A91-59L0%0.0
11-19Lamar (230.0)SlndA73-85W100%0.0
11-24Idaho (133.0)BSkyN64-62W100%0.0
11-25Central Michigan (167.0)MACN72-75L0%0.0
11-29UCLA (36.0)P12A75-66L0%0.0
12-2Northern Arizona (310.0)BSkyH52-60L0%0.0
12-5Fresno St. (103.0)MWCA70-55L0%0.0
12-9Idaho (133.0)BSkyH66-55W100%0.0
12-16Georgia Southern (140.0)SBH55-53W100%0.0
12-20Delaware (233.0)CAAA76-62L0%0.0
12-27Arkansas (30.0)SECA95-68L0%0.0
1-6Utah Valley (83.0)WACA75-42L0%0.0
1-11UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACH74-87L0%0.0
1-13New Mexico St. (35.0)WACH53-66L0%0.0
1-18UMKC (256.0)WACA62-59L0%0.0
1-20Chicago St. (335.0)WACA78-89W100%0.0
1-26Seattle (165.0)WACA59-55L0%0.0
2-1Chicago St. (335.0)WACH91-61W100%0.0
2-3UMKC (256.0)WACH81-58W100%0.0
2-8New Mexico St. (35.0)WACA69-43L0%0.0
2-10UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACA68-66L0%0.0
2-17Grand Canyon (156.0)WACH71-58W100%0.0
2-22Utah Valley (83.0)WACH47-70L0%0.0
2-24Seattle (165.0)WACH64-57W100%0.0
3-3Grand Canyon (156.0)WACA81-68L0%0.0
3-8Utah Valley (83.0)WACN81-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Bakersfield's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal St. Bakersfield's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal St. Bakersfield.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC26.5126.5133.3333.33-8.84-8.84
Utah ValleyWAC6.356.3561.5461.541.471.47
Grand CanyonWAC4.744.7466.6766.671.581.58
New Mexico St.WAC4.694.6982.1482.143.023.02
UMKCWAC4.654.6525.9325.93-2.24-2.24
SeattleWAC4.634.6357.1457.140.660.66
Chicago St.WAC4.574.573.573.57-4.24-4.24
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.574.5739.2939.29-0.98-0.98
Georgia SouthernSB3.773.7762.0762.070.910.91
IdahoBSky3.773.7774.0774.071.811.81
Northern ArizonaBSky2.012.0110.3410.34-1.59-1.59
ArizonaP121.941.9478.7978.791.121.12
Central MichiganMAC1.921.9251.7251.720.070.07
UCLAP121.911.9164.5264.520.550.55
ArkansasSEC1.881.8866.6766.670.630.63
Fresno St.MWC1.881.8862.0762.070.450.45
DelawareCAA1.851.8536.6736.67-0.49-0.49
LamarSlnd1.851.8555.5655.560.210.21
Southern UtahBSky0.280.2836.6736.67-0.08-0.08
Idaho St.BSky0.280.2842.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.260.2651.7251.720.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.250.2560.7160.710.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.250.2548.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.220.2260.7160.710.050.05
UC RiversideBW0.220.2224.1424.14-0.11-0.11
New MexicoMWC0.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.1962.0762.070.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.190.1930.7730.77-0.07-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
Texas St.SB0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
Little RockSB0.180.1820.0020.00-0.11-0.11
CaliforniaP120.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
USCP120.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
Portland St.BSky0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1616.6716.67-0.11-0.11
UTEPCUSA0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
BradleyMVC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
TroySB0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
OregonP120.140.1464.7164.710.040.04
StanfordP120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
ColoradoP120.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1312.5012.50-0.10-0.10
UC DavisBW0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.130.1324.1424.14-0.06-0.06
MontanaBSky0.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
NevadaMWC0.130.1379.4179.410.070.07
South DakotaSum0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1284.8584.850.090.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
WashingtonP120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Arizona St.P120.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Oregon St.P120.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
BYUWCC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
DukeACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
HawaiiBW0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
UTSACUSA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Notre DameACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
DetroitHorz0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
PurdueB100.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
SMUAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
UMBCAE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
UNLVMWC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.090.0913.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0732.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0680.0080.000.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.Amer0.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
IowaB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
OhioMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0679.4179.410.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0612.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01